Our Best Starting XI

[The Johnson]

Although I dislike seeing players play out of position, I might be tempted to play this team it could be more of a diamond with diouf at the tip and Austin anchoring.
Kenny
Peltier. Lees. Pearce. Warnock

Byram. Austin. Murphey. Diouf

Varney. McCormack

In term of balence I do hope poleon comes on, as we need a striker, that has the opposition centre backs scared of him getting in behind. For all varney & hunts work rate and mccormacks energy flicks and tricks. I feel they all forwards who need a couple of chances to score a goal & lack pace that would prevent teams playing a high line against us.

I can't understand the movement that is out there to play Byram in midfield. Last year he was undoubtedly our player of the season and I cannot understand why anyone would want to take him out of the position that he dominated last year when the man who is playing there now (Peltier) is, by all accounts, simply not as good. We do not want to ruin Byram, who is arguable our best prospect, by forcing him into an unusual position. While I have no doubt thathe could do it, I do not think tnat it will be beneficiak for him or the team in the long run.

[The Don]

Source ??
What level does this data refer to ??

Really hard to answer that, it's just appreciation of the game and being observant. Example, watching Jurgen Klinsmann and how he would drag markers out of position with his movement. You won't see any statistics eg "Assist" for something like that but his fellow striker wouldn't have been able to score a goal without Klinsmann making a hole in the defence using sideways movement.

The classic example is Big 'un and Little 'un, the Target man making inroads into the defence with forward runs, pushing the defence back, holding up the ball and winning flick ons to supply to the Poacher. There's so much two forwards can do working in tandem that a lone striker can't do on their own to unlock a defence. Statistics wise you can see the effect in the goals per game ratio of the team. You kind of expect a negative impact on goal output anyway, because by sacrificing a forward for an extra midfielder you *should* get an increase in possession.

[SMorientes]

At least 30% of all goals are scored by the interaction between two centre forwards, or to put it another way a team using just one up front will only score 2/3 of the goals of the same team with 2 up front.

Source ??
What level does this data refer to ??

Very dubious about the logic used there. Seem to remember we were top scorers in the division three seasons ago with just Becchio up top.

[Nic]

Goals are considered a rare event in football (from analytical stand point) and not sure formations matter as much. From the book The Numbers Game the top divisions across europe are very similar in goals scored. La Liga used 4-2-3-1 in 57.8% of matches in 2010/11, where Premier League used 4-4-2 44.3% of the time. So not sure changing from 2 strikers to 1 would have the effect you suggest.

Not all goals are equal, so going from 1.6 to 2.2 a game might not mean much. By not equal I mean the goal in a 1-0 win is worth more than 3rd one in 3-0 win. Goals on the losing side mean less too - no point increasing to 2.2 average if letting in more goals.

To evaluate our goal scorers you need to look at which of their goals contributed points, so work out the point-marginal for each of their goals and tot that up. It may be that a 12 goal a season forward could be worth more than a 20-goal "star striker" if majority of their goals were when we won by a single goal margin.

[The Don]

We do not want to ruin Byram, who is arguable our best prospect

It often assists the development of a youngster to play them in various positions.

[Selby White]

At least 30% of all goals are scored by the interaction between two centre forwards, or to put it another way a team using just one up front will only score 2/3 of the goals of the same team with 2 up front.

Source ??
What level does this data refer to ??

That suggests the 2nd striker gets assists for 30% of goals scored which isn't true looking at football league assists tables for last season.

[isrodger]

Although I dislike seeing players play out of position, I might be tempted to play this team it could be more of a diamond with diouf at the tip and Austin anchoring.
Kenny
Peltier. Lees. Pearce. Warnock

Byram. Austin. Murphey. Diouf

Varney. McCormack

In term of balence I do hope poleon comes on, as we need a striker, that has the opposition centre backs scared of him getting in behind. For all varney & hunts work rate and mccormacks energy flicks and tricks. I feel they all forwards who need a couple of chances to score a goal & lack pace that would prevent teams playing a high line against us.

I can't understand the movement that is out there to play Byram in midfield. Last year he was undoubtedly our player of the season and I cannot understand why anyone would want to take him out of the position that he dominated last year when the man who is playing there now (Peltier) is, by all accounts, simply not as good. We do not want to ruin Byram, who is arguable our best prospect, by forcing him into an unusual position. While I have no doubt thathe could do it, I do not think tnat it will be beneficiak for him or the team in the long run.

I don't disagree with you pal, and we dont want to do an aidy white on him,however he is that good I think he could easily play on the right or centre of mid at this level. It might be a case of needs must, until we sign some proper wide players. Actually talking of lads out of position, arn't we playing our best forward in midfield now? In truth we probably have 4 gaps in our starting 11. The elusive dominant centre half, two wide men and for me a out and out goalscorer, until at least 2 of them are signed we may have to continue to have to put hexagonal pegs in round holes.

[Deleted User 728]

Really hard to answer that, it's just appreciation of the game and being observant. Example, watching Jurgen Klinsmann and how he would drag markers out of position with his movement. You won't see any statistics eg "Assist" for something like that but his fellow striker wouldn't have been able to score a goal without Klinsmann making a hole in the defence using sideways movement.

The classic example is Big 'un and Little 'un, the Target man making inroads into the defence with forward runs, pushing the defence back, holding up the ball and winning flick ons to supply to the Poacher. There's so much two forwards can do working in tandem that a lone striker can't do on their own to unlock a defence. Statistics wise you can see the effect in the goals per game ratio of the team. You kind of expect a negative impact on goal output anyway, because by sacrificing a forward for an extra midfielder you *should* get an increase in possession.

You shouldn't quote figures if you're just going on a hunch, mate

I mean, look at Spain ? I really don't like the way they play because I personally find it rather boring but at times they play without a centre forward at all. Fabregas has played there ahead of the likes of Torres and Salgado since David Villa had injuries to contend with and it hasn't stopped them.
The tactical vogue was already for one up top and had been for a good three or four years before they won their first tournament, Euro 2008.
Pretty much every top level team now plays a variation on 4-2-3-1 or 4-3-3, so that's why I asked what level. The way you posted made it sound like you'd been analysing data from our division, hence the question.

For the record I disagree about "There's so much two forwards can do working in tandem that a lone striker can't do on their own to unlock a defence". Not these days, there's not. If you go back to Jones/Clarke, Keegan/Toshack, Beardsley/Lineker or Heskey/Owen ( I mean that seriously - their stats as a duo stand up to Beardsley/Lineker it's just the roles are reversed) then I would say you have an argument, but in today's game movement off the ball, fluidity, wingers cutting in on their stronger feet and three interchanging attackers behind the non-scoring target man are much more the norm.

I think there's still a case for it in the Football League: our own Beckford and Becchio proved to be a real handful after all - if only we'd had a decent team behind them we'd be back in the EPL by now ... but we'd never stay up playing both of them in an orthodox 4-4-2.

[The Don]

If we score 100 goals this year I will be happy

[Nic]

Source ??
What level does this data refer to ??

Really hard to answer that, it's just appreciation of the game and being observant. Example, watching Jurgen Klinsmann and how he would drag markers out of position with his movement. You won't see any statistics eg "Assist" for something like that but his fellow striker wouldn't have been able to score a goal without Klinsmann making a hole in the defence using sideways movement.

You don't in papers, but such stats are being recorded. Companies like Prozone (based round the corner from ER) and OptaStats record positional data of the players, so it would be possible to evaluate how players are pulled out of position.