Stat attack - How will it finish ?

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Stat attack - How will it finish ?

Postby Selby White » 26 Mar 2019, 16:53

Just doing a little homework on how the division may finish (I know stats don't prove anything but make for debate).

I've based the results on the seasons earlier results against the 8 teams we all have left to play.

Norwich - currently on 78 points and against the teams left to play they beat 7 of them earlier this season only losing to Stoke. Repeat those results and they would walk away with it on 99 points.

Leeds - currently we are on 73 points and of the 8 teams remaining to play we beat 4 of them (Preston, Wigan, Villa & Ipswich) drew with 3 (Millwall, Wednesday & Brentford) and lost to Brum. That would give us another 15 points making a nervy total of 88.

Sheff Utd - currently on 74 points they beat 3 of their remaining opponents (Preston, Millwall & Hull) drew with 3 (Brum, Ipswich & Stoke) but lost to Bristol & Forest. Only 12 points to add making it 86.

West Brom - currently on 67 points beat 5 of their opponents (Millwall, Bristol, Preston, Reading & Rotherham), drew with Brum but lost to Hull & Derby. 16 points to add making it 83.

Of course none of this takes into account the pressures at this stage of the season but I'll take 2nd as we stand.
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Re: Stat attack - How will it finish ?

Postby Daz5 » 26 Mar 2019, 16:57

I think we came up from division 1 , 2nd behind Norwich
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Re: Stat attack - How will it finish ?

Postby Otherworld » 26 Mar 2019, 20:51

I really think we’ll get more than 4 wins from the last 8, and Sheff Utd have a few very loseable ties ahead of them...
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Re: Stat attack - How will it finish ?

Postby Nic » 26 Mar 2019, 21:39

Norwich should win their 4 home games (QPR,Reading, Wednesday and Blackburn). Their away games are Middlesbrough so should be win depending on what borough team turns up, Wigan Athletic could be a draw as they play better at home, most likely win at Stoke, then they play Aston Villa on the final day and if Villa are playing for a playoff spot, who knows. So I'd say 20 putting them on 98

Sheff U have a tricky first fixtures against Bristol City and Preston, but then three easy wins against Birmingham City, Millwall, and Nottm Forest. Maybe only a draw at Hull City, but should be a win vs Ipswich Town and probably a win against Stoke City, netting 16-18 to finish on 90-92

Leeds should win 4 home games and the two away games at Birmingham and Ipswich with away games at Preston and Brentford being tricky. So could be anything fro 18-24 points especially with players returning for the final push so 91-97

West Brom will get 18 points at best to finish on 85pts

Unless we have a sudden fall of form then 3rd would be the lowest but we get as don't think West Brom will find the form to be a threat. It looks like a our key injuries are recovering, so we could be at full strength for the final 5-6 matches, and if Sheff-U get anything other than 6 points from the next 2 tricky then we could be back in it - I wouldn't really discount forest raising their game for a derby match too. Norwich do look most likely to stay champions, but who knows :think:


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Re: Stat attack - How will it finish ?

Postby Wigwam » 28 Mar 2019, 14:03

Impossible to call. I'd say of the 8 games remaining each team should win at least the following based on the remaining fixtures :-

Norwich 3
Blunts 2
Us 3
WBA 2

Everything else, any result can happen I think, that's why the Championship is what it is, though I can't see Norwich not making top 2. Preston and Brum results will be key for teams in 2nd-4th.
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Re: Stat attack - How will it finish ?

Postby Selby White » 07 Apr 2019, 14:59

I know we are all down following Saturday but following up this initial post it doesn't look so bad.

Sheff Utd - beat Preston and lost to Bristol which is exactly what they did earlier in the season.

leeds - Beat Millwall lost to Birmingham and that's 2 points better off.

Hence projected points total is now Sheff Utd (as was) "86" and Leeds now two points better off "90".

Yes I know statistics don't mean everything before someone points it out but have got to remind ourselves that Sheff Utd have 4 teams to play that have already taken points of them. None of our 6 opponents have beaten us in the earlier meetings.
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Re: Stat attack - How will it finish ?

Postby Davycc » 07 Apr 2019, 15:22

Sheff Utd have 4 teams to play that have already taken points of them. None of our 6 opponents have beaten us in the earlier meetings.


I like this :D :thumbup:
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Re: Stat attack - How will it finish ?

Postby Nic » 15 Apr 2019, 07:09

Four games on since the thread was started and 4 games to go

So we have

1st Norwich City -- W2D2L0 -- now on 86
2nd Leeds Utd -- W3D0L1 -- now on 82
3rd Sheffield Utd -- W1D2L1 -- now on 79
4th West Bromwich -- W2D0L2 -- now on 73

So Norwich have lost 4 points from what Selby White and I had put.
Leeds are 4 points better than Selby white put and I got the preston and Birmingham results wrong

So for the final 4 games - will they be as expected or wanting to reevaluate?
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Re: Stat attack - How will it finish ?

Postby saintjimmy » 15 Apr 2019, 11:39

I did one of those results table things on Twitter, think it was for the last 8 games , I was quite harsh with ourselves and went easy with Sheff Utd and we still pipped them 89 points to 88 I think it was .
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Re: Stat attack - How will it finish ?

Postby Nic » 15 Apr 2019, 16:18

Norwich could lose more points but 8 from 12 will make them champions, even if just on goal diff if we get the max 12.
Sheff U have some injuries and a ban, so whilst forest should be an easy win they could find Hull harder.

So scores after next 2
Norwich - 90
Leeds - 86
Sh.U 82
WBA 76
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