Where the goals will come from ?

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Selby White
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Where the goals will come from ?

Post by Selby White »

Leading on from looking at the defence yesterday and how it may or may not improve this season we need to consider the attack and find reasons to score more goals.

Looking at statistics for the Championship number of goals scored or conceded are not the greatest guide as teams have gained automatic scoring sixty something goals or conceding in the 50’s. Usually if a team doesn’t score a lot they need to concede few (eg, Boro only scored 63 and conceeded 31) in 2016.
I believe its ratio we should look at by dividing goals conceded into goals scored and I’ve come to the conclusion you need a ratio of over 2 to guarantee promotion although 1.9 would give you a very good shout. Of course it can be done with less like Norwich with 1.69 last season but that is unusual, lowest ratio since 2012 when Hull defied logic scoring only 61 and conceding 52.

So onward to what we need for promotion, if you are positive and believe our set up this year will improve us defensively (lets say 5 goals less conceded) we will need to score 86 goals to get the ratio over 1.9 (90 for ratio of 2).
However on the other side of the coin if you believe we will concede more (again lets say 5) we are looking at over 105 goals and that is very unlikely.

So think we can only look at the positive and say we need to find another 13 to 17 goals, where will they come from ?

If we continue with one player up front (Bamford or Roofe) they both averaged similar with Bamford slightly better with a goal every 162 muinutes which equates to 25 goals over the season.
Both players are similar age and should be about reaching their peak. I see them both slightly different I think Bamford gets into better goal scoring positions while Roofe does a lot of unselfish work that creates gaps for others to score. Also think Bamford could do well if he stays clear of injury and gets fully fit, we will see.

So we then go to our attacking midfielders and I do believe this is where a lot of goals can come from. Pablo and Klich both did well and can see 25 between them this season.

I believe our first choice wing men will be Costa & Harrison, I think 8 each or 16 between them is a fair target. I think we will see much more from Harrison this year, been very impressed in pre-season.

So that’s 66 goals but I’m going to add a few from the back up impact subs (Roberts, Edmundson, Clarke, Shackleton, Bogusz, Stephens,etc). Going to be greedy and say 10 between them. Roberts is the one for me that if he can get fit and a run in the team, start scoring and turn into a match winner. But all have potential that can’t be denied.

Now that’s 76 goals, so we need defenders to help out. We do know how fullbacks can add to the total (especially when Alioski and Dallas play there).
Lets add another 6 for fullbacks, ambitious but if MB keeps playing wingers there a definate possibiity.

I also think it’s reasonable to expect our CB’s to score 4 between them from set pieces over the length of the season.

So that’s it 86 goals and where they will come from and I’ve not even included a couple of Kalvins 30yard rockets into the top corner.

Ok this is all If’s and buts and I’ve only looked at the positives but we all live in hope. :D

As said in the defensive thread “The proof is in the pudding” roll on next weekend. :thumbup:
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Re: Where the goals will come from ?

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This again is a big concern. The side last season probably created twice as many goal scoring opportunities as any side we’ve put out since Grayson's days. The issue was converting them. With one up top that striker should get 25 goals .... Roofe & Bamford should get near 40 between them. Confidence is a factor however I just don’t believe either is a natural like a billy sharp or Jordan Rhodes.

The system we play relies a lot on midfielders (wingers included) arriving late and getting behind the defence, we should expect 3 of them to approach 10 goals per season. Klich & Hernandez delivered last season, one would hope Costa joins them in delivering double figures this season.

A big issue for me is set plays, predominantly corners. I would imagine the monk team got circa 15 goals from corners; the average being 6 to 8 goals a season ? This is an area I can not see us getting more than one or two goals from. You can talk about delivery however 2 x 6 foot plus centre backs plus a keeper, should be able to keep our Cooper, Ayling & Bamford at bay.
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Selby White
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Re: Where the goals will come from ?

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Can't really argue with that ISR, our system is set up to rely on our midfielders. We have a gem with Pablo and as you say Klich did well.
We need more from Harrison and I believe signs are there for him to have a good season.
Costa just hope he is as good and productive as the expectations.

It will be interesting stats regarding set pieces from an attacking viewpoint. Compare with other teams but I suspect your thoughts may be right on that one. Can I say hope not though.
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Re: Where the goals will come from ?

Post by PhoenixUnited »

Don't panic everyone. According to some reports coming out of Italy today we have an offer in of €15m no less for a striker! :wtf:

Believe that and you believe in Santa Claus :wave:

Is it kick off yet?
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Selby White
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Re: Where the goals will come from ?

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PhoenixUnited wrote:Don't panic everyone. According to some reports coming out of Italy today we have an offer in of €15m no less for a striker! :wtf:

Believe that and you believe in Santa Claus :wave:

Is it kick off yet?
There is another thread for transfer rumours.

If you bothered to read before posting you may realise this one is discussing where we think our goals may come from given the squad we have got.

Please keep threads on topic.
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NottinghamWhite
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Re: Where the goals will come from ?

Post by NottinghamWhite »

Honestly believe this is Patrick Bamford’s season, I’m hoping he can put the proverbial two fingers up to his critics Al la Chris Wood. I’m also pretty sure we will see the emergence of Ryan Edmonson as well.
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Re: Where the goals will come from ?

Post by LAsouthcoast »

Edmonson didn`t make the bench yesterday, I think MB has Bogusz in front of him. He has ability but seems a little cumbersome at times, still time will tell how they both progress.
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Selby White
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Re: Where the goals will come from ?

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LAsouthcoast wrote:Edmonson didn`t make the bench yesterday, I think MB has Bogusz in front of him. He has ability but seems a little cumbersome at times, still time will tell how they both progress.
Bogusz is an attacking midfielder not a striker so don't believe they are competing for the same spot.

Suspect Edmundson may go out on loan to get games under his belt. Nothing concrete just a gut feeling.
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Re: Where the goals will come from ?

Post by LAsouthcoast »

Selby White wrote:
LAsouthcoast wrote:Edmonson didn`t make the bench yesterday, I think MB has Bogusz in front of him. He has ability but seems a little cumbersome at times, still time will tell how they both progress.
Bogusz is an attacking midfielder not a striker so don't believe they are competing for the same spot.

Suspect Edmundson may go out on loan to get games under his belt. Nothing concrete just a gut feeling.
I understand that but MB still didn`t put Edmonson on the bench in front of Bogusz, that makes me think he doesn't think he is ready yet, just my opinion.
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Re: Where the goals will come from ?

Post by isrodger »

LAsouthcoast wrote:
Selby White wrote:
LAsouthcoast wrote:Edmonson didn`t make the bench yesterday, I think MB has Bogusz in front of him. He has ability but seems a little cumbersome at times, still time will tell how they both progress.
Bogusz is an attacking midfielder not a striker so don't believe they are competing for the same spot.

Suspect Edmundson may go out on loan to get games under his belt. Nothing concrete just a gut feeling.
I understand that but MB still didn`t put Edmonson on the bench in front of Bogusz, that makes me think he doesn't think he is ready yet, just my opinion.
I think MB is heightist :clap: :lolno:
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