Some good points Rigger but one stat I actually don't like is the assists one as it only counts if a goal is scored.rigger wrote:I've not got anything against non-scoring strikers but if you're going to play with one, they obviously need to cover a lot of ground, take a lot of damage, hold up the ball really well and bring other players into the game.
Giroud and Guivarch have won World Cups for France without scoring in the tournament, while Emile Heskey proved highly adept at all those things for England during an excellent partnership with Michael Owen - if you doubt that statement, check the numbers between them and compare them to the Beardsley-Lineker duo, which played a similar number of matches.
On a few occasions this and last term, we've dropped points after Bamford's been substituted : this could be a coincidence but I think it's more likely that we have less of an outlet up top and less height when defending, so would argue the two factors are linked.
Given that he's likely to play every game till the end of the season if Bielsa's previous 80-odd games in charge are anything to go by, we clearly need more goals from elsewhere in the team or for him to hit a purple patch if we go up.
Trouble is, I don't think he's all that at setting up others.
He's fine receiving the ball under pressure but he generally doesn't assist too often (3 in 29 this season) so I think we need to play someone off him. This could be Pablo, but is more likely to be Augustin or Roberts, as we saw in the second half against Wigan.
I really like Roberts and would love to see us do that because I think given more game-time he'll become a dangerous player.
The likelihood is pretty slim though, unless something happens to Hernandez and Roberts manages to stay fit for a while.
The only hope is that the competition pushes him to be more consistent or the penny drops with Bielsa and Augustin hits the ground running and Bamford is quietly dropped. I'd bring him on with 15 minutes to go to close out a game - that could be where his real value lies in the run-in, but this really does depend on the Frenchman being up to the task.
Here's hoping !
Not just talking PB (although I appreciate that's who we are looking at) but the use of the Stat at all.
My thoughts are a good pass can be played giving a team mate a good shooting opportunity but he doesn't score so no assist registered through no fault of the providing player. PB created at least two but probably more chances for team mates on Saturday but they don't count.
In the same breath a Pablo or Costa pass to PB in a scoring position their stats are only as good as what he does.
Hope that makes sense.
On another note I was just doing a comparison of this and last season under the Bielsa system of one up front (League Games Only).
Last season our main striker scored 27 goals at an average of 0.58 per game (this total was shared by Roofe-15, Bamford-9 & Roberts-3)
This season so far its 16 goals from 30 games at an average of 0.53 (total shared between Bamford-12, Nketieh-3 & Roberts-1)
No surprise but still lower so moving in the wrong direction, I think a figure of 0.65 (30 goals in season) would be realistic expectation given our possession stats.
So then to other goals from everyone else -
Last season it was 46 goals between easy calculation of one per game.
This season its unbelievably running at exactly the same rate with 30 goals from 30 games.
I've always said that we need to be looking at 2 goals per game to win leagues (not an exact science I know as history proves you can score less if you concede less and still win leagues).
Anyway that means we should be looking for 92 goals in my opinion.
I've already said our strikers should be providing 30 of these so that leaves another 62 goals from elsewhere.
Our current rate of one per game (46 goals) isn't good enough.
We need a strike rate from other players of around 1.35 goals per game between them.
Long explanation but think the numbers back up Riggers point it isn't only the striker that needs to improve its the whole team.