Selby White wrote:Can see what you are saying ISR but have to disagree with your statement on the best/worst defence in the league(based on chances created).
The thread is about "the big picture" looking at 10 matches not one or two individual moments and on the face of it if you look at strike rate per chance your argument does carry a point.
However its what constitutes a chance and the quality of the chance. Many of our shots are from distance or in a packed penalty area because of the way teams set up against us and not clear cut. Alternately the few chances opponents get (other than long punts) are often a little more clear cut because its often on the counter and not so many defenders about.
In this instance I would expect a better strike rate.
I think people need to stop reading the BBC stats and actually judge what is happening, always hard to score against packed defences. A shot from 20yards through a crowded penalty area isn't the same as a tap in from 6yards with defenders scurrying back.
For me the fact we limit our opponents to so few chances, have conceded less and have more clean sheets tells me so far this season our defence is the best in the division.
Firstly - as you correctly identify -Im not actually saying we have the worst attack or defence in the league, and obviously the way teams and we are set up is an important factor. My assessment is not actually based on BBC stats (however I suspect if I looked at the shots on goal to goals figs to goals - I’m pretty sure I’d be more or less right) my assessment is based on attending games, where our conversion rate, particularly defensively is poor.
Again this is merely anecdotal but demonstrates the point in question. Corners - on average this season we will have had between 12 & 15 corners per league game and have yet to score. The opposition will have had less than half that figure and have scored 3 goals from 1st or 2nd phase play.
As regards the big picture if your competitive set (as was the case last season Norwich / Sheff Utd - quote bielsa ) converts 3 times as many chances as yourself Its hard to conclude you are more potent in attack. As regards the defence, we look solid as teams invariably don’t have the ball to attack us, if and when they do, on that rare occasion we are under pressure there is a good chance they score. The combination of our inability to finish off teams and our defensive fragility creates a level of tension in the stands that transmits to the players, which will only increase as the season progresses.
My big picture conclusion Re the first 10 games, is we are playing exhilarating football; our performances have been good we should have taken 30 points. The only games we could and should have possibly dropped a point were WBA, Barnsley and Swansea. Our performance level will however drop off for a period and If we are to get promoted we need to address our shortfalls in both defence and attack. I also believe our defensive weaknesses also comprise our selection and point man in attack.
I will put my neck on the line here selby and offer a little foresight of our 11th game. I’m not sure we will win, lose or draw, but we will have double the amount of chances and corners to Millwall, however they will score from one of those corners and we won’t. Let’s hope I’m wrong.
Very perceptive piece Isrodger - aside from the corner your forecast for Millwall was uncannily accurate. That second goal was so easily scored that it was deeply worrying. Depending on Berardi as a CB is disastrous. Neither Douglas or Alioski look secure at full back when pressed back. White is outstanding and Ayling did fine at CB but another injury or suspension will make us paper thin.
I want us to succeed as much as anyone but I think our view at 20 games will not be anywhere near as rosy as it was this morning. Then the January window will decide how much Bielsa is prepared to adapt and how much the club is prepared to put its money where its mouth is. We just don’t have enough quality.
Selby White wrote:Can see what you are saying ISR but have to disagree with your statement on the best/worst defence in the league(based on chances created).
The thread is about "the big picture" looking at 10 matches not one or two individual moments and on the face of it if you look at strike rate per chance your argument does carry a point.
However its what constitutes a chance and the quality of the chance. Many of our shots are from distance or in a packed penalty area because of the way teams set up against us and not clear cut. Alternately the few chances opponents get (other than long punts) are often a little more clear cut because its often on the counter and not so many defenders about.
In this instance I would expect a better strike rate.
I think people need to stop reading the BBC stats and actually judge what is happening, always hard to score against packed defences. A shot from 20yards through a crowded penalty area isn't the same as a tap in from 6yards with defenders scurrying back.
For me the fact we limit our opponents to so few chances, have conceded less and have more clean sheets tells me so far this season our defence is the best in the division.
Firstly - as you correctly identify -Im not actually saying we have the worst attack or defence in the league, and obviously the way teams and we are set up is an important factor. My assessment is not actually based on BBC stats (however I suspect if I looked at the shots on goal to goals figs to goals - I’m pretty sure I’d be more or less right) my assessment is based on attending games, where our conversion rate, particularly defensively is poor.
Again this is merely anecdotal but demonstrates the point in question. Corners - on average this season we will have had between 12 & 15 corners per league game and have yet to score. The opposition will have had less than half that figure and have scored 3 goals from 1st or 2nd phase play.
As regards the big picture if your competitive set (as was the case last season Norwich / Sheff Utd - quote bielsa ) converts 3 times as many chances as yourself Its hard to conclude you are more potent in attack. As regards the defence, we look solid as teams invariably don’t have the ball to attack us, if and when they do, on that rare occasion we are under pressure there is a good chance they score. The combination of our inability to finish off teams and our defensive fragility creates a level of tension in the stands that transmits to the players, which will only increase as the season progresses.
My big picture conclusion Re the first 10 games, is we are playing exhilarating football; our performances have been good we should have taken 30 points. The only games we could and should have possibly dropped a point were WBA, Barnsley and Swansea. Our performance level will however drop off for a period and If we are to get promoted we need to address our shortfalls in both defence and attack. I also believe our defensive weaknesses also comprise our selection and point man in attack.
I will put my neck on the line here selby and offer a little foresight of our 11th game. I’m not sure we will win, lose or draw, but we will have double the amount of chances and corners to Millwall, however they will score from one of those corners and we won’t. Let’s hope I’m wrong.
Very perceptive piece Isrodger - aside from the corner your forecast for Millwall was uncannily accurate. That second goal was so easily scored that it was deeply worrying. Depending on Berardi as a CB is disastrous. Neither Douglas or Alioski look secure at full back when pressed back. White is outstanding and Ayling did fine at CB but another injury or suspension will make us paper thin.
I want us to succeed as much as anyone but I think our view at 20 games will not be anywhere near as rosy as it was this morning. Then the January window will decide how much Bielsa is prepared to adapt and how much the club is prepared to put its money where its mouth is. We just don’t have enough quality.
We are aiming to gain promotion on a budget, for that there is no doubt. The owners decided to splash out on coach more than players and it almost paid off last season, the spend on players is limited and I doubt that would change any time soon. Expecting or hoping for a spending spree in January is unrealistic, we may get one player but surely the idea is that the coaching staff will get players playing above their expected performance and we will promote youngsters when gaps appear. Is the opinion of Berardi because of the red card? Because that red card today was unfair, there was minimal contact and the fact that their player does a fist pump when the penalty is awarded speaks volumes. His reputation precedes him does not mean that Berardi is someone we jettison anytime soon. We have the squad we have, there will not be wholesale changes, or multiple signings in January to "rescue us". We are not doomed to the play offs in my opinion, but we will not walk the league either. There are highs and lows to come, but come on, surely that's what you want - the team to click and we go up - winning every game because we have players who can perform without turning up is not as fulfilling.
Selby White wrote:Can see what you are saying ISR but have to disagree with your statement on the best/worst defence in the league(based on chances created).
The thread is about "the big picture" looking at 10 matches not one or two individual moments and on the face of it if you look at strike rate per chance your argument does carry a point.
However its what constitutes a chance and the quality of the chance. Many of our shots are from distance or in a packed penalty area because of the way teams set up against us and not clear cut. Alternately the few chances opponents get (other than long punts) are often a little more clear cut because its often on the counter and not so many defenders about.
In this instance I would expect a better strike rate.
I think people need to stop reading the BBC stats and actually judge what is happening, always hard to score against packed defences. A shot from 20yards through a crowded penalty area isn't the same as a tap in from 6yards with defenders scurrying back.
For me the fact we limit our opponents to so few chances, have conceded less and have more clean sheets tells me so far this season our defence is the best in the division.
Firstly - as you correctly identify -Im not actually saying we have the worst attack or defence in the league, and obviously the way teams and we are set up is an important factor. My assessment is not actually based on BBC stats (however I suspect if I looked at the shots on goal to goals figs to goals - I’m pretty sure I’d be more or less right) my assessment is based on attending games, where our conversion rate, particularly defensively is poor.
Again this is merely anecdotal but demonstrates the point in question. Corners - on average this season we will have had between 12 & 15 corners per league game and have yet to score. The opposition will have had less than half that figure and have scored 3 goals from 1st or 2nd phase play.
As regards the big picture if your competitive set (as was the case last season Norwich / Sheff Utd - quote bielsa ) converts 3 times as many chances as yourself Its hard to conclude you are more potent in attack. As regards the defence, we look solid as teams invariably don’t have the ball to attack us, if and when they do, on that rare occasion we are under pressure there is a good chance they score. The combination of our inability to finish off teams and our defensive fragility creates a level of tension in the stands that transmits to the players, which will only increase as the season progresses.
My big picture conclusion Re the first 10 games, is we are playing exhilarating football; our performances have been good we should have taken 30 points. The only games we could and should have possibly dropped a point were WBA, Barnsley and Swansea. Our performance level will however drop off for a period and If we are to get promoted we need to address our shortfalls in both defence and attack. I also believe our defensive weaknesses also comprise our selection and point man in attack.
I will put my neck on the line here selby and offer a little foresight of our 11th game. I’m not sure we will win, lose or draw, but we will have double the amount of chances and corners to Millwall, however they will score from one of those corners and we won’t. Let’s hope I’m wrong.
Very perceptive piece Isrodger - aside from the corner your forecast for Millwall was uncannily accurate. That second goal was so easily scored that it was deeply worrying. Depending on Berardi as a CB is disastrous. Neither Douglas or Alioski look secure at full back when pressed back. White is outstanding and Ayling did fine at CB but another injury or suspension will make us paper thin.
I want us to succeed as much as anyone but I think our view at 20 games will not be anywhere near as rosy as it was this morning. Then the January window will decide how much Bielsa is prepared to adapt and how much the club is prepared to put its money where its mouth is. We just don’t have enough quality.
This thread is about our first 10 games not today's performance or any individual match. We have match threads for that.
As you say WK you suspect our position won't be as rosy after 20, well its my intention to do a similar big picture thread every 10 matches so could be interesting.
Keep your face always toward the sunshine - and shadows will fall behind you.
Selby White wrote:
This thread is about our first 10 games not today's performance or any individual match. We have match threads for that.
As you say WK you suspect our position won't be as rosy after 20, well its my intention to do a similar big picture thread every 10 matches so could be interesting.
It’s a great idea for a thread SW and glad to hear you’ll keep it going.
Some of what happened in the Millwall match thread was indicative of the first ten games and that’s why I referenced it. What happened with Berardi ( however harsh) was indicative of his likelihood to self implode over a much longer timeframe. He cannot be relied upon and in a tense/hostile atmosphere his fuse shortens accordingly.
The frustration for me is that we have been playing great football right through the first 10 games and we haven’t gotten anywhere near the return that effort and quality deserved. Self inflicted weakness in the defense has been savagely punished and our general play has been ridiculously under rewarded in terms of goals. The feeling is that a small number of changes or additions (including from the U23’s) could recalibrate this imbalance. These small changes could possibly fix this but when these don’t seem to recognised or acted upon it is disappointing.
I really hope we are flying at the 2o game mark but my fear is that we will persist with what isn’t working and keep getting less than we deserve.
Selby White wrote:
This thread is about our first 10 games not today's performance or any individual match. We have match threads for that.
As you say WK you suspect our position won't be as rosy after 20, well its my intention to do a similar big picture thread every 10 matches so could be interesting.
It’s a great idea for a thread SW and glad to hear you’ll keep it going.
Some of what happened in the Millwall match thread was indicative of the first ten games and that’s why I referenced it. What happened with Berardi ( however harsh) was indicative of his likelihood to self implode over a much longer timeframe. He cannot be relied upon and in a tense/hostile atmosphere his fuse shortens accordingly.
The frustration for me is that we have been playing great football right through the first 10 games and we haven’t gotten anywhere near the return that effort and quality deserved. Self inflicted weakness in the defense has been savagely punished and our general play has been ridiculously under rewarded in terms of goals. The feeling is that a small number of changes or additions (including from the U23’s) could recalibrate this imbalance. These small changes could possibly fix this but when these don’t seem to recognised or acted upon it is disappointing.
I really hope we are flying at the 2o game mark but my fear is that we will persist with what isn’t working and keep getting less than we deserve.
Thanks WK am going to try keep this thread away from the individual games as we have match threads. Looking at the overall picture at points in a season is good for debate.
For the record think the 20 game Mark was about our strongest position last term, we will see.
Keep your face always toward the sunshine - and shadows will fall behind you.
Selby White wrote:
This thread is about our first 10 games not today's performance or any individual match. We have match threads for that.
As you say WK you suspect our position won't be as rosy after 20, well its my intention to do a similar big picture thread every 10 matches so could be interesting.
It’s a great idea for a thread SW and glad to hear you’ll keep it going.
Some of what happened in the Millwall match thread was indicative of the first ten games and that’s why I referenced it. What happened with Berardi ( however harsh) was indicative of his likelihood to self implode over a much longer timeframe. He cannot be relied upon and in a tense/hostile atmosphere his fuse shortens accordingly.
The frustration for me is that we have been playing great football right through the first 10 games and we haven’t gotten anywhere near the return that effort and quality deserved. Self inflicted weakness in the defense has been savagely punished and our general play has been ridiculously under rewarded in terms of goals. The feeling is that a small number of changes or additions (including from the U23’s) could recalibrate this imbalance. These small changes could possibly fix this but when these don’t seem to recognised or acted upon it is disappointing.
I really hope we are flying at the 2o game mark but my fear is that we will persist with what isn’t working and keep getting less than we deserve.
Thanks WK am going to try keep this thread away from the individual games as we have match threads. Looking at the overall picture at points in a season is good for debate.
For the record think the 20 game Mark was about our strongest position last term, we will see.
It was the 24 game mark, just had a 7 game winning streak, top at Christmas, etc etc.
For me it's what changes does or doesn't happen in the next ten games. This season has been defined so far by a non-changing team format - there was the oh he (Bielsa) won't change a winning team and then no changes when we lost either. A couple of times Bielsa made changes at half time rather than in just final half hour and the post match for Millwall (yes I know this thread isn't about it but I didn't bring it up first ) Bielsa stated he should have probably changed in the first half. If we stay unchanged in the next ten starts, will we get a repeat of the first 10?
Then again are we overreacting - last season in the first 10 we W5D4L1, this season W6D2L2, so a higher points total. It's just some tweaking, the not conceding a very late goal or a bit more success at converting to get an extra goal.
We've played some lovely football, but we're clearly not scoring the goals that this style of play needs to win every game. The way I see It is we need to play Eddie Nketiah as part of a front three, interchanging with both Bamford and Harrison/Alioski/Dallas or Costa with Hernandez playing in the number 10 role which will give us some flair in the middle. We don't need players out on the wing all the time when we are playing a wing back system. Foreshaw and Phillips can do the nasty work in the middle. My team if all fit would be
It seems to me that we don't actually cross the ball that much, certainly not with the wide forwards - they always cut inside looking for cute balls into the box for on-rushing midfielders or, rarely, Bamford if he's free and not being tied down by a couple of defenders.
The only people really crossing are the wing-backs and we don't really get enough numbers into the box to get on the end of them close enough to goal for headers to be viable scoring options other than at set-pieces.
If we're going to continue to play that way - and I'm pretty sure we are - we need players with a trick and pace enough to fashion their own chances more often. Eddie is definitely one of them, Costa too, but also I think Roberts could do that job.
I love Harrison and Dallas for their work-rate but if we're not using them as out-and-out wingers, we should leave them on the bench because they can both cause problems for tiring defences late on.
) Bielsa stated he should have probably changed in the first half. If we stay unchanged in the next ten starts, will we get a repeat of the first 10?
