CheeznOnionPasty wrote:I am basically in a corporate development role professionally at the moment, so I do a lot of work with M&A and investments. I obviously don't know Andrea Radrizzani but I do know a lot of entrepreneurs and investors - so based on what I know, the kinds of profiles I see around me and the little bit of publicly available data on Radz business goings-on (I am sure there's a load more data available but I wasn't going to spend hours researching a five minute forum post!) here's my hypothesis about him and what we should expect.
If you look at Radz track record he strikes me as a true entrepreneur and a 'builder'. He's built a lot of things from scratch, MP&Silva, Aser Ventures, Eleven Sports Network and Leeds United (I say "from scratch" and obviously we already existed, but given where we were languishing the same logic applies, we were starting at a point of near zero value).
What's not clear from a surface scan of the internet is the way he likes to exit his investments. For example he joined Media Partners, started their Asia division, launched the combined MP & Silva, negotiated billions in deals (this seems to be his real strength, identifying, chasing and negotiating promising TV rights/distribution deals) and then stepped back, two years later it was sold. Aser, Eleven and Leeds are all projects that he is still actively involved in. So there's not a lot of data available to build a pattern.
Having said that, he has no track record of acquiring and flipping businesses that I can find, so I'm going to say based on this super limited data that he doesn't seem to be the kind of investor to buy, then strip/evolve and sell for a profit on a quick turnaround.
My hypothesis is that he's a long term investor, building businesses in the industry he loves (sport and media), that he can grow in value but retain in his portfolio over the long term. Behaviourally he's more involved early on whilst he's in the exciting build phase but then steps back to focus on his next exciting build project when the current one hits the operational phase and is humming along.
The other thing to bear in mind, as I mentioned in another thread, is that Radz is likely guaranteed his pay day anyway, he's managed to increase the value of the club significantly over the past 3-4 years he's been involved, so when he sells more of his stake there is zero chance that he won't have made a significant profit. The question will be, how big can that valuation climb, can he take us up to $1bn+ valuation, or multiple billions like the top 4... because if he does then his longer term investment in us will pay off hugely. I really believe any short term investment goals he had with us are probably met, it's gravy from this point on so long as we stay in and around the premier league.
So what that means in practice is that "if" we stay in the Premier League this year Radz will accept more investment from other parties (likely 49ers, but also the new Australian billionaire too, Peter Lowy, don't forget him) and reduce his stake but I expect him to keep some share of ownership (likely 10-25%) as a longer term investment. He'll also likely become less involved in the day-to-day and at some point we will see a new Chairman, at which point we will definitely be under new ownership and new influences. If we go down, there'll be a review and if he believes we can get back quickly i.e. 1-2 years, he'll stay actively involved and won't dilute his shareholding too much - then when we get back up, you'll see the same pattern repeated. If we go down and the review concludes it's going to be a really long haul, another 3+ years to get stable in the PL, he may sell his stake entirely to other parties.
I think the bottom line is that Radz will be involved over the long term, but in the medium term we're likely to see another party take actual control of the club and he will step back.
(/speculation)
Thanks for all that
As a person I do trust him, and I have from the start, there was something about his wording and his behaviour that made me believe he was on the level. I also said that if he was here to 'flip' the club then I wouldn't be that aggrieved as he absolutely put the club back on stable ground after nearly 20 years of financial shenanigans (polite term for 'corrupt boardroom tossers' antics')
Radrizzani has also played with the media, I feel, and so the '2024 agreement' is something I take with a bit of a pinch of salt, perhaps in efforts to create competition from other serious investors. I know he's very wealthy and that it is always said that the rich love to get richer, but with him I think he is as excited about building something an also about the business reputation and acumen. That all seems to be intimated in your post, chief Cheez
My faith in him undoubtedly has a lot to do with how he showed Cellino up for the crooked cretin that he was, and how he showed him what real football business and ownership is about. Radrizzani has made some poor mistakes but I still believe he will do what he feels is only good for the club, about spreading the 'gospel' and reputation.
