Last Six games - same again please

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Barlow Boy
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Re: Last Six games - same again please

Post by Barlow Boy »

Leicester White wrote:Some talk of a letting a small number of fans into the ground ... wonder how much Leeds would raise if they sold raffle tickets for £1 each with 100 winners getting to attend that last match? Perhaps the moderator, who pulled off the Angus Kinnear coup, could drop him a line with the idea - I might be stupid enough to buy 100 tickets.
:lol: :lol: :lol:.

I did read it was going to be a random draw of ST holders, and allow a certain percentage in so they could be social distanced. I can’t see it happening to be honest, but if it does, I’ll be keeping everything crossed my number comes out :D
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Muttzzer
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Re: Last Six games - same again please

Post by Muttzzer »

I've just looked back over the previous five seasons. I'm not making any predictions because there's too many variables. It is interesting to look at trends, however.

In four of the previous five seasons, the top two after 40 games were still in 1st and 2nd place after 46 games.

What's the outlier? In 2014/2015, M'boro were top after 40 games and on 75 points. Bournemouth were in 2nd place on 74. M'boro won three, drew one, and lost two of their final six ( 10pts from a possible 18). They finished 4th on 85 points. They then lost in the play-off final to Norwich (who were 3rd after 40 games and still 3rd after 46 games). Watford went up in 2nd.

[Interesting, Bamford was up front for M'boro that day. M'boro had 8 shots, 1 on target. Bamford had one shot. :shifty: Howson, Johnson playing for Norwich and Clayton in the middle for Boro].

Context is important. Boro had a tough enough run in that year, even beating Norwich away in the last six games. But the most important factor was the late surge of the other teams. Bournemouth won five of their last six. Watford won five of their last six. Norwich won four of their last six. And it was really tight at the top after 40 games:

1. M'boro - 75pts
2. Bourne. - 74 pts
3. Norw. - 73 pts
4. W'ford - 73 pts
5. Brent. - 69 pts
6. Derby - 68pts

So, 7pts between 1st and 6th (at the moment it's 14pts between 1st and 6th).

The other thing to consider is what other teams are doing. The reality is, if it's tight and those around you are winning games, you have to win yours; if they are dropping points, you can afford to drop points. If you look back over the past five years, this was always the case. You don't really get away with dropping points if others are winning. Although, interestingly, the season after the example above - 2015/2016 - M'boro went up in 2nd, but only by the skin of their teeth. Brighton, in 3rd, finished level with them and it was M'boro's +2 GD that took them up (they only conceded 31 goals that season). In that run-in of the last six games, Burnley and Brighton, who were 2nd and 3rd after 40 games respectively, won the majority (5 of 6 and 4 of 6) of their final games and Boro didn't. Boro had a reasonable cushion after 4o games that season:

1. M'boro - 79pts
2. Burnley. - 77 pts
3. Bright. - 75 pts
4. Hull - 72 pts
5. Sheff. W.- 68 pts
6. Derby - 67pts

So, tight in the top four, but a 12 point gap between 1st and 6th.

Interesting time!
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Selby White
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Re: Last Six games - same again please

Post by Selby White »

Interesting stuff Muttzer of course its football and its the variables that are unknown.

This season as a further variables in the 12 week break, teams have got players back that were injured so suspect some of the smaller squads who have a good first elevens but lose 2 or 3 players can weaken them significantly more than those with stronger squads. May explain some of the bottom teams hitting a bit of form.

Saying that the two games a week may actually take its toll, 3 or 4 to go i can see some clubs running out of steam.

Bottom line is who knows ?
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Re: Last Six games - same again please

Post by Davycc »

How I see it panning out.

Leeds v Stoke 3pts ...... Brentford v Charlton 3pts ...... Forest v Fulham 1pt
Swansea Leeds 1pt .... . Derby v Brentford 1pt ....... Fulham v Cardiff 3pts
Leeds v Barnsley 3pts ..... Brentford v Preston 3pts ....... West Brom v Fulham 0pts
Derby v Leeds 1pts ..... Stoke v Brentford 3pts ....... Fulham Sheff Wed 3pts
Leeds v Charlton 3pts ..... Brentford v Barnsley 3pts...... Wigan v Fulham 3pts

89 pts ....... 85 pts ....... 80 pts

Not worried about WBA
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Otherworld
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Re: Last Six games - same again please

Post by Otherworld »

Davycc wrote:How I see it panning out.

Leeds v Stoke 3pts ...... Brentford v Charlton 3pts ...... Forest v Fulham 1pt
Swansea Leeds 1pt .... . Derby v Brentford 1pt ....... Fulham v Cardiff 3pts
Leeds v Barnsley 3pts ..... Brentford v Preston 3pts ....... West Brom v Fulham 0pts
Derby v Leeds 1pts ..... Stoke v Brentford 3pts ....... Fulham Sheff Wed 3pts
Leeds v Charlton 3pts ..... Brentford v Barnsley 3pts...... Wigan v Fulham 3pts

89 pts ....... 85 pts ....... 80 pts

Not worried about WBA
Don’t need to worry about anyone if we get 11 points...
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Re: Last Six games - same again please

Post by Nic »

Davycc wrote:How I see it panning out.

Leeds v Stoke 3pts ...... Brentford v Charlton 3pts ...... Forest v Fulham 1pt
Swansea Leeds 1pt .... . Derby v Brentford 1pt ....... Fulham v Cardiff 3pts
Leeds v Barnsley 3pts ..... Brentford v Preston 3pts ....... West Brom v Fulham 0pts
Derby v Leeds 1pts ..... Stoke v Brentford 3pts ....... Fulham Sheff Wed 3pts
Leeds v Charlton 3pts ..... Brentford v Barnsley 3pts...... Wigan v Fulham 3pts

89 pts ....... 85 pts ....... 80 pts

Not worried about WBA
If it plays out like that, then after Barnsley we only need a point. So Derby match confirms we're up.
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