Staying up

Leeds United news here, transfer rumours, club affairs, players, fans, etc.
Specific match discussions should go in the category below.
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Selby White
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Re: Staying up

Post by Selby White »

Looking at the current bottom 3 I'm thinking that none of them will reach 30 points this season.
Not sure if it's happened before to have 3 teams so low but I'm Definately predicting it.
Keep your face always toward the sunshine - and shadows will fall behind you.
Nic
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Re: Staying up

Post by Nic »

Selby White wrote:
Daz5 wrote:Yes Nic and we are only 14pts behind Liverpool
That's really relevant for those that thought we would be competing for top spot in the league this season.

Personally I think 4th bottom is the initial target for a newly promoted team and we are very much on schedule to finish higher than that based on what we've seen so far.

Cant see any of Sheff Utd, West Brom, Burnley, Fulham or Brighton overtaking us at any stage.
The likes of Newcastle, Arsenal (a surprise thought I'd be putting West Ham here), Palace, Villa should be what we are comparing with. Let's see how many of these we can finish above.
Not sure if dropping nearly £100M on transfers has ever been about being 4th from bottom, but establishing ourselves. I would expect us to maintain a distance from the relegation battle even if we don't make top 10.

We have been unfortunate with injuries at the back, but maybe that means we'll have a stronger second half of the season once players return.
Saxon
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Re: Staying up

Post by Saxon »

After beating us Palace seem to be on a slide down. 1 win in 7 games, that was against West Brom.
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Selby White
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Re: Staying up

Post by Selby White »

Nic wrote:
Selby White wrote:
Daz5 wrote:Yes Nic and we are only 14pts behind Liverpool
That's really relevant for those that thought we would be competing for top spot in the league this season.

Personally I think 4th bottom is the initial target for a newly promoted team and we are very much on schedule to finish higher than that based on what we've seen so far.

Cant see any of Sheff Utd, West Brom, Burnley, Fulham or Brighton overtaking us at any stage.
The likes of Newcastle, Arsenal (a surprise thought I'd be putting West Ham here), Palace, Villa should be what we are comparing with. Let's see how many of these we can finish above.
Not sure if dropping nearly £100M on transfers has ever been about being 4th from bottom, but establishing ourselves. I would expect us to maintain a distance from the relegation battle even if we don't make top 10.

We have been unfortunate with injuries at the back, but maybe that means we'll have a stronger second half of the season once players return.
Irrespective of the amount spent going up is the great unknown, how will new players adapt? how will last seasons players adjust?
Plenty of fans thought certain individuals would struggle.

But as I said above we are now competing with the next batch of teams above the bottom 5.
Keep your face always toward the sunshine - and shadows will fall behind you.
Aqua-
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Re: Staying up

Post by Aqua- »

Selby White wrote:
Nic wrote:
Selby White wrote:
Daz5 wrote:Yes Nic and we are only 14pts behind Liverpool
That's really relevant for those that thought we would be competing for top spot in the league this season.

Personally I think 4th bottom is the initial target for a newly promoted team and we are very much on schedule to finish higher than that based on what we've seen so far.

Cant see any of Sheff Utd, West Brom, Burnley, Fulham or Brighton overtaking us at any stage.
The likes of Newcastle, Arsenal (a surprise thought I'd be putting West Ham here), Palace, Villa should be what we are comparing with. Let's see how many of these we can finish above.
Not sure if dropping nearly £100M on transfers has ever been about being 4th from bottom, but establishing ourselves. I would expect us to maintain a distance from the relegation battle even if we don't make top 10.

We have been unfortunate with injuries at the back, but maybe that means we'll have a stronger second half of the season once players return.
Irrespective of the amount spent going up is the great unknown, how will new players adapt? how will last seasons players adjust?
Plenty of fans thought certain individuals would struggle.

But as I said above we are now competing with the next batch of teams above the bottom 5.
Completely agree selby. I even prefer to finish in a spot out of europe qualifications (unless we win the league), as i think our squad is too short on manpower and quality to compete in uefa league along with cups and PL (unless the whole U23 is taking over a competition e.g. the U23 will play 95% percent of uefa league with seniors sitting on the bench as subs).
I think everybody in the club - from radz to bielsa, orta, etc... - knows our realistic goal for the first 3 seasons is establishing ourselves in the league, partly through investing in good signings on each window until we become a legitimate PL side rather than a group who punches above its weight (And like it or not we definitely are at the moment). We are a work in progress, and if we do well in the next couple of seasons (and with MB on our side) we arw going to be at least a respectable midtable side who fight for a spot leading to europe.
dunboyne white
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Re: Staying up

Post by dunboyne white »

The division seems to be sorting itself out into 3 groups. There is a top 7, with Villa temporarily squatting among them; there’s a bottom 7 (notwithstanding that Palace turned us over) and then there are the 6 who will compete for places 8-13. That’s us, Villa, Southampton, West Ham, Wolves and Arsenal. We could finish anywhere in that bunch - and whether it’s 8th, 13th or anywhere in between, it’ll be a superb first season back. And total entertainment along the way.
Nic
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Re: Staying up

Post by Nic »

We need to look at our relative points total rather than position. Think this thread came about when we were 15th, despite being quite a few points ahead of 18th.

So looking at the table with a graphic showing points to see how close we are to other teams

Image

We are as close to Brighton in 17th as we are from Liverpool in 1st.

Is relegation a possibility? Is it any more possible than us lifting the title. I think people may call me crazy if I started talking about lifting the title, but we are closer to that than relegation.
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Selby White
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Re: Staying up

Post by Selby White »

Good graphic again Nic and I think we should be initially looking at teams within 3 points (one game) of us.

So with that in mind we are currently looking at positions 5th to 13th.

The only anomaly this season is a few teams haven't played their full quota of games due to cancellations.
Don't know if you can do it but one based on "points per game" would be interesting.
Keep your face always toward the sunshine - and shadows will fall behind you.
Nic
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Re: Staying up

Post by Nic »

Selby White wrote:Good graphic again Nic and I think we should be initially looking at teams within 3 points (one game) of us.

So with that in mind we are currently looking at positions 5th to 13th.

The only anomaly this season is a few teams haven't played their full quota of games due to cancellations.
Don't know if you can do it but one based on "points per game" would be interesting.
You mean such as
Image

Of course looking at PPG may well explain some of the anxiety around.

Last 2 seasons we've been around the top of the Championship, with a PPG of approaching 2.0. We were expected to win and any other results caused some anxiety because if teams also contenders for automatic promotion were also aiming for about 2 PPG, then relatively:
for every draw we would need to win a game to get back to where we were
for a loss we would need to win two games just to get back.

This season, if your main goal is to stay up, then teams would be looking for a PPG of 1.0 (to give 38 points for the season)
So if you draw a match then you remain roughly where you are above relegation
If you lose 2 games, then a single win gets you back on track.

We have just won 2 games back to back - the next four are a free hit for us, where any points moves us further into safety.
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Selby White
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Re: Staying up

Post by Selby White »

Nic wrote:
Selby White wrote:Good graphic again Nic and I think we should be initially looking at teams within 3 points (one game) of us.

So with that in mind we are currently looking at positions 5th to 13th.

The only anomaly this season is a few teams haven't played their full quota of games due to cancellations.
Don't know if you can do it but one based on "points per game" would be interesting.
You mean such as
Image

Of course looking at PPG may well explain some of the anxiety around.

Last 2 seasons we've been around the top of the Championship, with a PPG of approaching 2.0. We were expected to win and any other results caused some anxiety because if teams also contenders for automatic promotion were also aiming for about 2 PPG, then relatively:
for every draw we would need to win a game to get back to where we were
for a loss we would need to win two games just to get back.

This season, if your main goal is to stay up, then teams would be looking for a PPG of 1.0 (to give 38 points for the season)
So if you draw a match then you remain roughly where you are above relegation
If you lose 2 games, then a single win gets you back on track.

We have just won 2 games back to back - the next four are a free hit for us, where any points moves us further into safety.
Yes that is good I do like these sort of statistics to monitor.
Interesting 4 teams less than 1ppg.

For this one I think currently we should make Chelsea and Southampton our targets while keeping above Arsenal & Wolves.
Of course depending how we do targets will be adjusted as we go.
Can you post similar when we reach the half way stage to see how it compares, then again at say 25 games and so on.
Keep your face always toward the sunshine - and shadows will fall behind you.
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