Statistics

Leeds United news here, transfer rumours, club affairs, players, fans, etc.
Specific match discussions should go in the category below.
Nic
Dick Ray's Talent Spotter
Posts: 1590
Joined: 31 Jan 2013, 15:46

Re: Statistics

Post by Nic »

Don't panic Mr Manwaring, don't panic.

After Brighton, some probably are, but do we need to? We are on 23 points, 11 above relegation. So how are the teams at the bottom likely to fare for the remainder of the season?

If we look at teams who were on 13 points or below at the 18 game stage (Fulham have played 17 games on 12 points, currently under 1PPG but lets assume they get 1pt for the game in hand, for simplicity sake).

Here is the past 15 seasons for those teams finishing 14th and below (click for larger version) with the teams who were on 13 or less points at the 18 game stage highlighted
Image

Apart from those who ended up in 20th, teams do better in the final 20 games, so we probably should expect similar this season. Maybe Sheffield United will carry on rooted to the bottom and possibly not get to Derby's 11 point total (they only managed 4 points in the final 20 games) or do enough to end 19th, but either way it's unlikely that the current bottom 3 will carry on equally badly for the rest of the season.

The average points total in the final 20 games for those who were on 13 or below is 19 points. A similar proposition this time would leave teams on 32 or below

Maybe one team will do a bit better, but in those cases a team that was on more will do poorly in the second half. 33 points could well be enough to avoid relegation, but if it's not it's likely to be not much more.

So what do we need 3, 4, or 5 wins. We will have plenty more games to lose, definitely at least 10 and maybe as many as 15, and we'll still survive.
Davycc
LUFCTALK Moderator
Posts: 15076
Joined: 03 Aug 2011, 18:09
Location: Location Location

Re: Statistics

Post by Davycc »

Nic wrote:Don't panic Mr Manwaring, don't panic.
That brought back a few memories, thanks for that, loved Dad's Army :thumbup:
All at Amazon Books

The Funny Corner
When Santa Got Stuck Up The Chimney
The Thrones Murders
psquithy
Brian McDermott's optician
Posts: 234
Joined: 30 Jan 2017, 09:41

Re: Statistics

Post by psquithy »

Nic wrote:Don't panic Mr Manwaring, don't panic.

After Brighton, some probably are, but do we need to? We are on 23 points, 11 above relegation. So how are the teams at the bottom likely to fare for the remainder of the season?

If we look at teams who were on 13 points or below at the 18 game stage (Fulham have played 17 games on 12 points, currently under 1PPG but lets assume they get 1pt for the game in hand, for simplicity sake).

Here is the past 15 seasons for those teams finishing 14th and below (click for larger version) with the teams who were on 13 or less points at the 18 game stage highlighted
Image

Apart from those who ended up in 20th, teams do better in the final 20 games, so we probably should expect similar this season. Maybe Sheffield United will carry on rooted to the bottom and possibly not get to Derby's 11 point total (they only managed 4 points in the final 20 games) or do enough to end 19th, but either way it's unlikely that the current bottom 3 will carry on equally badly for the rest of the season.

The average points total in the final 20 games for those who were on 13 or below is 19 points. A similar proposition this time would leave teams on 32 or below

Maybe one team will do a bit better, but in those cases a team that was on more will do poorly in the second half. 33 points could well be enough to avoid relegation, but if it's not it's likely to be not much more.

So what do we need 3, 4, or 5 wins. We will have plenty more games to lose, definitely at least 10 and maybe as many as 15, and we'll still survive.
Your analysis is very interesting and at the moment, quite comforting - but why do you do it - is it just interest, work, gambling or something else?
Nic
Dick Ray's Talent Spotter
Posts: 1590
Joined: 31 Jan 2013, 15:46

Re: Statistics

Post by Nic »

psquithy wrote:
Your analysis is very interesting and at the moment, quite comforting - but why do you do it - is it just interest, work, gambling or something else?
Interest. Got a math background, fascinated by what you can do in excel and taken a few courses, so mainly playing with it. Would love to use it more for work, but we'll see :).
User avatar
Selby White
LUFCTALK Moderator
Posts: 17206
Joined: 25 Mar 2012, 11:32

Re: Statistics

Post by Selby White »

Nic wrote:
psquithy wrote:
Your analysis is very interesting and at the moment, quite comforting - but why do you do it - is it just interest, work, gambling or something else?
Interest. Got a math background, fascinated by what you can do in excel and taken a few courses, so mainly playing with it. Would love to use it more for work, but we'll see :).
And hopefully talking for the majority of members I'd add it's much appreciated.
Its what makes it a good forum having members that put time & effort in and do regular posts or look after certain threads such as match reviews, POM, members map, prediction league and many more. Its not just regular threads we get lots of thoughtful posts on a variety of subjects from numerous members and without it the forum would be a boring string of meaningless one liners.

As I say about what Nic does the effort of many is appreciated, its great we've a lot of givers and not takers (unusual nowadays imho)
Keep your face always toward the sunshine - and shadows will fall behind you.
Nic
Dick Ray's Talent Spotter
Posts: 1590
Joined: 31 Jan 2013, 15:46

Re: Statistics

Post by Nic »

Newcastle lose again, lost 4 in 4 and winless in the last 8. Many are hoping Bruce is still in charge come Tuesday, so they don't get any new manager bounce when we play them.

As bad as that may seem, they are still 7 points clear of relegation, and in fact it could be seen as they still have a decent chance of survival. The lowest points a team has survived with is 34 points and it would not surprise me if less is needed this season.

Image
(click for full size - external site)

Norwich were in 20th on 12 points at the half way point which would put them in 18th this time round, purely because their GD was worse than Fulham's currently is. Watford were in 19th with 13 points, which would be enough this season to keep them out. They went down with 34, which may well be easily enough to keep teams up this season.

Liverpool are a whopping 18 points behind where they were last season. A lot of the focus is on Sheffield United who are 24 points behind and on course to finish with the lowest total in the history of the Premier League. This time last season they were on 29pts, or where Chelsea find themselves (maybe that's what Lampard has in store for next season ... one can dream).

It is probably because Liverpool did so well and maybe still in the mix rather than been adrift at the foot of the table, but recently they could not score against a hopeless Newcastle and are now winless in 5. Is Klopp at greater risk of being sacked than Wilder is, despite Liverpool getting their first Premier League title and first title win in 30 years?

Image

Compared to last season the table is largely splitting in two directions. The top is slightly better off, which may well be a reflection of Liverpool performing less well, so many were getting 1 or 3 points rather than losing that game. The bottom are on the whole slightly worse, and those below us are comprised of teams doing a lot worse than last season as well as the newly promoted sides. With the exception of Brighton the teams that were in the PL last season were all above 23 points. So it could be that some will struggle to get to 34 points, and though that was enough to get you relegated last season, this season it may be enough to stay up. It all depends on whether they improve in the second half of the season, or unable to keep it up. You would expect teams that did better last season may just be on a blip and have a good second half, but not always the case. Bournemouth were on 20 points, and were on a bad run (losing 6 out of the last 8) and managed just 14 points in the second half of the season.

So whilst Fulham may be in 18th and 5 points from safety, they do have a game in hand and their next two games are Brighton and West Brom. Will we see it tighten and the talk of Brighton and Newcastle being sucked into the relegation battle, or will they fail and the gap start to widen?
Deleted User 2747

Re: Statistics

Post by Deleted User 2747 »

Percentage of Premier League minutes played for Leeds in 2020/21:

Liam Cooper 67%
Robin Koch 53%
Pascal Struijk 43%
Diego Llorente 5%
Gaetano Berardi 0%

Been desperately unlucky with injuries in the central defensive department.

Also:
Our recent results have been remarkable given we’ve been having something of a defensive injury crisis in this time -

Form Last 6 Games:

Leeds - 9pts
Chelsea - 7pts
Liverpool - 6pts

Form Last 10 Games:

Leeds - 15pts
Liverpool - 14pts
Chelsea - 11pts

Haven't checked these stats personally, but if true, they give some perspective.
User avatar
Selby White
LUFCTALK Moderator
Posts: 17206
Joined: 25 Mar 2012, 11:32

Re: Statistics

Post by Selby White »

Frankie wrote:Percentage of Premier League minutes played for Leeds in 2020/21:

Liam Cooper 67%
Robin Koch 53%
Pascal Struijk 43%
Diego Llorente 5%
Gaetano Berardi 0%

Been desperately unlucky with injuries in the central defensive department.
Think you have also got to factor in a few percent for the times Ayling & Phillips have played CB.
against that some of Struijks were in midfield.

Koch & Berardi on the mend (not heard update on Llorente) but things could soon be looking better.


Frankie wrote: Also:
Our recent results have been remarkable given we’ve been having something of a defensive injury crisis in this time -

Form Last 6 Games:

Leeds - 9pts
Chelsea - 7pts
Liverpool - 6pts

Form Last 10 Games:

Leeds - 15pts
Liverpool - 14pts
Chelsea - 11pts

Haven't checked these stats personally, but if true, they give some perspective.
Amazing figures just shows all teams have good and bad runs.

Remember earlier in the season when we drew with Man City their fans moaning it was all over and they were already too far behind Liverpool, bet they aren't saying that now.
As always nothing is counted until all games have been played and spot checks can only be a guide to form not a result.
Keep your face always toward the sunshine - and shadows will fall behind you.
User avatar
johnh
Bielsa's English Teacher
Posts: 8522
Joined: 24 Jan 2012, 15:26

Re: Statistics

Post by johnh »

I would prefer stats looking at our chances of finishing in the top 6.
I once played against Don Revie.
User avatar
Otherworld
Billy Bremner's barbed-wire salesman
Posts: 944
Joined: 25 Jul 2012, 21:59

Re: Statistics

Post by Otherworld »

I love the detailed stats, but I like the elegance of simplicity too. I always used to think that, in the championship, over 2 points a game would get you promoted, 1.5 would get you a play-off place and under a point a game would see you going down. In the prem, it’s 1.5 points for a place in Europe.

Obviously it’s not an exact science, but it’s a good guide, I think.
Post Reply