40 Points

[Emley White]

The halfway stage to the season is almost upon us and but for an unlikely victory at Anfield, we will start the second half of the season four points short of an initial survival target of 20 points. Of course we'd all like to have points in the bag towards the perceived magic total of 40 but my question is can we get another 24 or near to it, or are we gonna get sucked into a bottom 3 battle with those currently on 10 or 11 points?
Can we get 6 or 7 wins and a few draws to stay in the Premier League?
The fixtures after Liverpool:
Aston Villa home
Burnley home
W Ham away
Newcastle home
Aston Villa away
Everton away
Man Utd home
Tottenham home
Leicester away
Norwich home
Wolves away
Southampton home
Watford away
Chelsea home
C Palace away
Man City home
Arsenal away
Brighton home
Brentford away
It's gonna be a tough second half of the season but we will hopefully have players coming back, Phillips apart, sooner rather than later. I think we can do it and I have every confidence that we will.

[Selby White]

Think the myth of a 40pts target often quoted is way off the mark. Recent history shows its likely to be around the low 30's and looking at how the bottom 3 are going and how much the top teams are accumulating could even be in the 20's.

To acquire 40pts Norwich, Newcastle or Burnley would need to average just under 2pts per game (currently running around 0.5pts per game). 2pts per game is what top 6 teams average.
Can anyone really see teams that have so far won one, one & two games respectively winning 7 or 8 of their remaining fixtures, that is what they would need to do.

[Another Northern Soul]

Think the myth of a 40pts target often quoted is way off the mark. Recent history shows its likely to be around the low 30's and looking at how the bottom 3 are going and how much the top teams are accumulating could even be in the 20's.

To acquire 40pts Norwich, Newcastle or Burnley would need to average just under 2pts per game (currently running around 0.5pts per game). 2pts per game is what top 6 teams average.
Can anyone really see teams that have so far won one, one & two games respectively winning 7 or 8 of their remaining fixtures, that is what they would need to do.

TBH yes mate, I can, there is only Norwich 'gone' for me, Newcastle could be a different proposition come January due to all the money they allegedly have available. And experience tells me that Burnley are far from write-offs yet. For me there are genuinely half the teams in the division in this relegation fight, just look at the points spread from 6th position down, this is one weird league this season.

[Polkadot]

Overview of points taken by team finishing 18th the last 15 seasons:
20/21: 28p
19/20: 34p
18/19: 34p
17/18: 33p
16/17: 34p
15/16: 37p
14/15: 35p
13/14: 33p
12/13: 36p
11/12: 36p
10/11: 39p
09/10: 30p
08/09: 34p
07/08: 36p
06/07: 38p

As we can see, in general there is a clear trend that more points was needed to be safe from 06/07 to 15/16 than the last five years. The last five season the avg point of team number 18 is 32,6 points.

I think the key difference is that in the last 5 seasons the top teams are better and the difference between the top teams and the bottom teams are much bigger. Given the avg points by the bottom 6 (I'm including Southampton that are at 1point/game avg) I struggle to see how 35 points will NOT be enough to survive this season.

[bedfordwhites]

Basically 8 more wins from 20 games, would make us reach the magical 40 points total. We should be able to do this , although i feel we will not need that many as that. Home wins against Burnley, Newcastle, Southampton &
Norwich will make it easier for our safety. Once we get at least half of our players back, we are good enough to remain in this division. In Bielsa we trust. MOT.

[The Fonz]

Think the key is not losing to those around or below us.
Assume everyone has everyone to play at least once (OK I know at half way we will have played Liverpool twice but that is good as don't have them again, think it's Villa we have twice in 2nd half).
I can't see any of the bottom 6/8 getting more than a odd point against the top 6.
So that leaves 13 games to gain points and when teams in the bottom 6 play each other only one can win.

Yes don't lose to these teams and it'll be tough for any of them to close the gap.

Will be nowhere near 40pts needed much nearer 30.

[Aqua-]

Yes Fonz this is a huge point. Winning all 3-4 teams below us now not only going to shoot us forward in the table, but these are seriously 6 pointers. Each win there will force them teams below us to get result in at least 2 matches (win + no loss). Win them 4 (2 of them are not far away) and i will be twice as confident that we will hit the mark than if we win 4 top 4 sides and lose/draw to the bottom 4 sides

[guitarmark]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/te ... es/2022-01

Just looked at our fixture list via the Beeb see above link - now break it down in to Jan/Feb/March/April and May

Then when you have to look at this fixture list on a month by month basis, based on recent results/performance and a current ave of .89 points per game, then I've gone for :-

Dec - 1/3 points
Jan - 6 points possible and as per comments above these games are each 6 pointers based on clubs below us
Feb - maybe only 2 points - Probably our toughest month remaining
March - 3/4/5 points
April - 3/4/5 points
May - maybe 3/4 points

This equates to an additional 18 points based on the low option above - 18 + 16 = 34 points that retains .89 points per game - I did not calculate this backwards - My forecast just worked out this way

Look at better option then an additional 22 points ='s total of 38

In short to get over 40 points we need to be picking up points against the sides who are certainly further up the table than we currently are

In a way I looked at the doom and gloom option as the minimum we can probably get away with (ie 34 points) - Play like we can/have done/players back and we can exceed 40 points - Either way it won't be a comfortable 4/5 months

[Nic]

Overview of points taken by team finishing 18th the last 15 seasons:
20/21: 28p
19/20: 34p
18/19: 34p
17/18: 33p
16/17: 34p
15/16: 37p
14/15: 35p
13/14: 33p
12/13: 36p
11/12: 36p
10/11: 39p
09/10: 30p
08/09: 34p
07/08: 36p
06/07: 38p

As we can see, in general there is a clear trend that more points was needed to be safe from 06/07 to 15/16 than the last five years. The last five season the avg point of team number 18 is 32,6 points.

I think the key difference is that in the last 5 seasons the top teams are better and the difference between the top teams and the bottom teams are much bigger. Given the avg points by the bottom 6 (I'm including Southampton that are at 1point/game avg) I struggle to see how 35 points will NOT be enough to survive this season.

Here we have the bottom 7 since 99, with the points they finished on plus the points they had after 18 games (click for full image). There are plenty of instances of teams surviving who were on less than we are at this stage.
As to the "magic 40" the last time 39 wasn't enough was 10-11 and before that 02-03. In the last 22 season's 9 times would 35 points send you down, and only 4 times was 37 not enough to stay up.



I'm sure most of us agree Norwich are going down, but there seems to be a difference in view for Newcastle. Personally, I think they are already gone. To stay up they would need to buy a new team, not just one or two individuals. There won't be the big rush of signings, more just a few journeymen with maybe one marque who has a release clause should they go down. If they are aiming for "40" then that's 30 points from 20, or 1.5PPG, and that's the form of a top half pushing for Europe team. I expect they will get some players and do a lot better than another 10 points, maybe they will get another 20, but for that to be enough it means another team has to really fail in the second half of the season.

[Leicester White]

We're in the dog fight... realistically one of these teams will go down:

Southampton
17 3 8 6 16 26 -10 17

Leeds United
18 3 7 8 18 36 -18 16

Watford
16 4 1 11 21 31 -10 13

Burnley
15 1 8 6 14 21 -7 11

If other teams do well in their games in hand, then we're already in the relegation zone, but points on the board worth way more than games in hand at this end of the table. If it goes to goal difference, we're done for.

Burnley know how to scrap their way out of this.

Every league match is huge until the end of the season now. I think we have enough playing nous and quality and managerial knowledge and skill to survive - fingers crossed!

Guitar Mark said ages ago the Burnley match was the biggest over Xmas... he was right - vital we win or draw that.