Relegation rivals

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corkleedsmot
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Relegation rivals

Post by corkleedsmot »

Just thought I would start a thread to talk about how the others around the bottom are doing.

Norwich and Brentford is a big game and Chelsea have Burnley. Newcastle are out of danger. 2-0 up vs Brighton.

Eriksson has supposedly started very well for Brentford. Not the news we want to hear.
Last edited by corkleedsmot on 05 Mar 2022, 18:53, edited 1 time in total.
corkleedsmot
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Re: Relegation rivals

Post by corkleedsmot »

Burley behind at Chelsea thankfully but we could do with a Norwich goal badly
white viz
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Re: Relegation rivals

Post by white viz »

I think Brentford is our last game of the season and I thought it might be a decider for the last relegation place but Brentford are pulling away a little so to my mind it’s between us Everton and Burnley for that dreaded Place.
The Fonz
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Re: Relegation rivals

Post by The Fonz »

Think our rivals are Norwich, Watford & Burnley to be honest. Finish above those 3 is our target for me.
Brentford have been poor and despite today could still be overtaken if we start converting chances.
corkleedsmot
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Re: Relegation rivals

Post by corkleedsmot »

To be fair Brentford have been sinking. Lost like 6-7 on the bounce and a win over Norwich isn't saying much. Thry will be in the scrap for sure. I do think it will be them Watford and Norwich to go. I think we will finish ahead of all those teams once we have Bamford and Phillips back back
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PhoenixUnited
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Re: Relegation rivals

Post by PhoenixUnited »

For me, we have to better the results of Brentford, Everton, Burnley, Watford and Norwich. Burnley have lost already but Brentford picked up 3 points. Watford play Arsenal tomorrow and it's Tottenham against Everton on Monday

Bottom but one Watford would only be a point behind us if they win their game in hand; Burnley and Everton would overtake us if they win their games in hand. Those are big "ifs". However, we must start picking up points.

There are those on here who confidently suggest that there are 3 worse teams in the Premiership than us. The form table indicates different IMHO. We are in a lot of trouble and in a relegation dog fight!
Keep The Faith / WAL
corkleedsmot
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Re: Relegation rivals

Post by corkleedsmot »

Watford have awful fixtures and by all accounts its chaos behind the scenes there. I do think them and Norwich def go. We have a nice run of games and hopefully mid April we will have the points we need or are super close. Optimistic for sure but possible if we have a full team. I'm hoping it won't be a dog fight for that last spot
Nic
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Re: Relegation rivals

Post by Nic »

corkleedsmot wrote:Just thought I would start a thread to talk about how the others around the bottom are doing.

Norwich and Brentford is a big game and Chelsea have Burnley. Newcastle are out of danger. 2-0 up vs Brighton.

Eriksson has supposedly started very well for Brentford. Not the news we want to hear.
I am surprised it took this long for such a thread to come up, considering the R word has been talked about quite a bit.

It really looks like it will now be between the bottom 6 with Newcastle having overtaken Brentford and look like going to be safe. When considering the teams it's worth looking at who they have left and the type of results they get against similar teams

Image

Brentford had been safe but seemed to be freefalling - in fact looked like they were doing what Bournemouth were doing when they went down
Image
They had a lot of lower teams to play, with Newcastle, Norwich, then Burnley being a key run of fixtures. They may have lost to Newcastle, but the win over Norwich will be welcome welcome news for them. They are now six points clear but have played 2 more games than either Burnley or Watford. If they win v Burnley than a 9 point gap might be enough to say they are likely clear and will be looking to the three other games in the bottom six to make sure. Likely to finish in 15th on 39

Burnley seem to have to aura of relegation specialists. Though in the last 5 seasons (that they have been up) only once were they at risk of relegation. The other times their performances faded at the end near the start of the season but had enough points to be safe. In 2018-19 they had 18 points after 21 games in the relegation zone, but managed another 22 to finish 15th on 40. The question then was could they do it again? Wins over Brighton and Spurs and a draw with Palace, looked like another great escape was on, but that has faltered with two losses. Burnley are draw specialists (they've drawn 12 of the 26 games played) and do seem to do well against mid table opposition, so the loss to Leicester will have been a hit. With 12 games left they may well get 5-6 draws, but that only puts them on 27 and really need a couple of wins to boost their escape. They will be hoping for the double over Brentford, though that looks a bit more in doubt. They have the other three bottom 4 sides to play, so this may be where they need to get wins from, and ideally from all three. Lets say they win 2 and get 5 draws elsewhere, that puts them on 32, but is it enough?

Everton, for some reason aren't always considered a relegation candidate, but like Brentford they had good form early on but now in a poor run. Their win against us is their only points this year. They arguably have the hardest run in, having just lost against Man City have the rest of the top 8 sides still to play. If they don't get points there (surely likely to lose at least 5 of them if not all), its the other 7 games they are relying on results from. Lets say they win 3 and squeeze a draw from a top 8 side, that would put them on 35, and possibly safety.

I'll come to us in a bit, but lets look at the bottom 2, Norwich and Watford

Norwich are 5 points from safety and played 3 games more than Everton in 17th. They might have been hoping for points from freefalling Brentford, but it was not to be. They are running out of games likely to get points from. Eleven games to go, 4 against top 7 sides they've not got a single point from, and their new manager bounce having now evaporated. Where will they get points from? Can't see them getting 3-4 wins, and would be lucky to get one. Surely they will get some draws, so that and maybe a win somewhere might get them into the low 20's, but not sure they will get off the bottom.

Watford have 4 bottom six sides to play still and might hope to fair better than Norwich, but all their points are concentrated against 6 sides, losing to the other 13. So that might mean they will get something from the Burnley and Everton games (lets say another 4 points), but what else? Possibly the odd draw or two? So six points, putting them on 25, keeping them above Norwich (little consolation that is).

So what about us and the battle to avoid 18th? With Everton likely to finish above Burnley, are we above both, below both or sandwiched in between?

Well if we have turned a corner, then the three bottom six sides could net us 9 points, or say 7 if we draw Brentford. Key will be winning the games against the bottom 2. With 5 games in the middle of the pack if we can get 1PPG from these (e.g. W1D2L2) could mean 34 points going into the final game of the season with a point guaranteeing us safety.

Bottom line need to monitor Burnley and Everton, but also start getting points. Five games coming up we need points from - if we can get 8 points, it puts us in a good position for the final 6 games.

A graph of recent form of the bottom 6
Image

Really is dependant on if any can be bothered to get some points in!
corkleedsmot
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Re: Relegation rivals

Post by corkleedsmot »

Arsenal doing the job in the second half thankfully.

Edit: I may have spoken too soon :)
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PhoenixUnited
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Re: Relegation rivals

Post by PhoenixUnited »

Watford.......LOSE! :thumbup:
Keep The Faith / WAL
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