2022 - 2023 Transfer Rumours and Squad Discussions

[CheeznOnionPasty]

I've done quite a lot of consulting around change management and human capital management, not in sport but business in general, so I just wanted to chip in about this issue of how many old team members can you afford to lose and how many new team members can you integrate without it becoming a major problem and having a significant impact on maintaining the team culture.

This is important because our team culture is absolutely core to how we've managed to build over the last three years and how we managed to survive such a rough season this year - if our lads didn't have the togetherness and team culture that they do have, we'd have been relegated this year 100%.

I was having a quick look for some evidence/data over lunch as I write this post but can't put my finger on the science at the moment, if I find it later I'll post a link.

Anyway, if I were advising a client going through a rebuild I'd probably tell them 10-20% turnover is as much as most teams can handle in a 12 month period without putting the culture at risk. So that means 2-5 players leaving and no more than 2-5 players coming in for a squad of 25, any more than that and there's too many new perspectives, opinions and attitudes which WILL change the team dynamic and make it harder to preserve the culture.

So two conclusions from that. Firstly, it's absolutely critical that we recruit for personality/attitude fit with the rest of the team (which we actually seem to do better at than recruiting based on technical skills!) and secondly, that we don't ever turnover more than that 2-5 number in any one season.

The footballing evidence was already provided by superfox above, we've seen teams like Fulham come up and turnover 50% of their playing squad, it rarely ends well. So the kind of wholesale rebuild that some folks are talking about might be required but has to be phased over 2-3 transfer windows, otherwise you run a significant risk of breaking what you already have in the pursuit of what comes next.

From a management perspective it's just too risky to have that much turnover.

[PC71]

Aaronson has signed.

https://www.leedsunited.com/news/team-n ... eds-united

[Leonickroberts]

I've done quite a lot of consulting around change management and human capital management, not in sport but business in general, so I just wanted to chip in about this issue of how many old team members can you afford to lose and how many new team members can you integrate without it becoming a major problem and having a significant impact on maintaining the team culture.

This is important because our team culture is absolutely core to how we've managed to build over the last three years and how we managed to survive such a rough season this year - if our lads didn't have the togetherness and team culture that they do have, we'd have been relegated this year 100%.

I was having a quick look for some evidence/data over lunch as I write this post but can't put my finger on the science at the moment, if I find it later I'll post a link.

Anyway, if I were advising a client going through a rebuild I'd probably tell them 10-20% turnover is as much as most teams can handle in a 12 month period without putting the culture at risk. So that means 2-5 players leaving and no more than 2-5 players coming in for a squad of 25, any more than that and there's too many new perspectives, opinions and attitudes which WILL change the team dynamic and make it harder to preserve the culture.

So two conclusions from that. Firstly, it's absolutely critical that we recruit for personality/attitude fit with the rest of the team (which we actually seem to do better at than recruiting based on technical skills!) and secondly, that we don't ever turnover more than that 2-5 number in any one season.

The footballing evidence was already provided by superfox above, we've seen teams like Fulham come up and turnover 50% of their playing squad, it rarely ends well. So the kind of wholesale rebuild that some folks are talking about might be required but has to be phased over 2-3 transfer windows, otherwise you run a significant risk of breaking what you already have in the pursuit of what comes next.

From a management perspective it's just too risky to have that much turnover.

Good post CnOP, completely agree. In the world of Football Manager, of course we need to move on a third of the squad (incl loans), replace them with better players, and also add further new players to grow the squad size slightly. In the real world, this would bring significant risks. There's also obviously the enforced cultural shift that comes from losing players we'd prefer to keep. Phillips is clearly a core part of the squad culture for example. If he leaves, we'll need to replace him technically/tactically, but also in terms of leadership, influence, and just being an all round good guy. The same for Forshaw, who by all accounts is extremely popular and a calm head who holds the squad together. The alternative way of framing things is that there are players who may be leaving who don't bring much to the culture (Roberts?), or players who could join who could really add to it (a strong-charactered alternative GK like Johnstone)

I'd imagine the squad is in a bit of emotional disarray at the moment, having stayed up, but also knowing that there's a lot of change coming. Marsch seems a good manager (in the traditional professional rather than footballing sense), so hopefully he can help the group ride this out and become an evolved but similarly strong version of the squad we know and love.

As you say, the club needs to figure out which positions are most pressing, and which we can keep current players in until January or ideally next summer. For me, we really need a new LB, at least one more CM (depending on Phillips), a CF, and probably a winger, in this window. CBs, an upgrade on Roberts, another GK, are less pressing.

[Barlow Boy]

Aaronson has signed.

https://www.leedsunited.com/news/team-n ... eds-united

Don’t know much about him to be honest, but pleased we have got the deal done nice and early, around £25M ?

A five year deal, not messing about there.

[mshnd06]

Aaronson has signed.

https://www.leedsunited.com/news/team-n ... eds-united

Don’t know much about him to be honest, but pleased we have got the deal done nice and early, around £25M ?

A five year deal, not messing about there.

US fan here. I know it's a relatively low bar, but I like him better than Pulisic

[SiMamu]

From what I can make out, Aaronson is more in the mould of a more mobile Klich, than Hernandez.

[corkleedsmot]

Having done some more thinking:

GK: Meslier, NEW (Johnstone)

RB: Drameh, Ayling
CB: Koch/Llorente, Cresswell
CB: Cooper, Struijk
LB: NEW (Sergio Gomez), Dallas, Hjelde

CM: NEW (Maitland-Niles), Forshaw/Klich
CM: Phillips/NEW (Grillitsch), Bate

AM: Aaronson, James/Roberts
AM: Harrison, NEW (Minamino)
CF: NEW (Lookman), Greenwood
CF: Bamford, Gelhardt

I think a few of those are really likely. We are in for a RB (Calvin Ramsay looks the likeliest and then Dest)
as well but honestly we will have the worst defence in the league again imo if we start the season like that.
Niles and Lookman are good calls but haven't seen us linked?
Grillitsch would be an unreal signing, very high quality player.

Yes we need Midfielders badly but people better not forget how we conceded goals last year. I still think we would be very light there and it would be a poor window if that is all we did after losing Raph. I expect 150 to be spent if we do lose Raph, maybe you think we will just spend a bit more than his transfer fee. I also think we will lose Kalvin. If City really want him they will get him and Liverpool are likely looking for a DM and Newcastle might buy half the premier league in the long summer ahead.

[Tedbaker]

Looked at a few clips. Reminds me more of Mason Mount. Highly mobile, good first touch, young. I have a good feeling.

[mshnd06]

Looked at a few clips. Reminds me more of Mason Mount. Highly mobile, good first touch, young. I have a good feeling.

This is the comp I had in mind as well. Quality, similar style of play. Not on Mount's level but still an excellent addition

[corkleedsmot]

"With #LUFC summer transfer business heating up, reports in Italy reckon Jesse Marsch’s side will land Calvin Ramsay.
La Gazzetta dello Sport, discussing Bologna’s interest, state La Rossa are dissuaded from making a bid, with Leeds “in particular” favourites.
£5.1m fee suggested"

Would be a nice signing. Aaron Hickey would be a nice land too and would solve our left back issue, Would be expensive but clearly a top talent.