We have a lot of injuries and the questions are
- would we be where we are now if we didn't have as many?
- will we have as many for the rest of the season?
For the first, I believe not and it is a major influence on why we've not performed as well. If you then think about the teams below us, they are still below us with much fuller squads.
For the second, I hope not. It would be incredibly unlucky if we did. So given that we should play better with a full squad, then as players return results will improve. The teams below us don't have that bank of players to return to improve their results (Newcastle might get more players using the royal wealth bank, but that's not as effective as good players returning).
If you say roughly that you are likely to get similar results from teams in a certain area of the table, then you could use the results so far to predict the rest of the season.
click for larger version
We've lost all games to the top 7, but only lost one game outside this group. A major factor this season v last is the number of draws. If the rest of the season follows a similar pattern we'll finish below 40 but above the relegation zone, and 30 won't be enough to stay up.
In all likelihood I'd expect the final tallies to be higher on some of the clubs near the bottom with a push to survive.
Looking at overall trends is interesting too. Newcastle have lost all their games to top half teams, but none to the bottom half. On the face of it you would think it would not be a relegation form team, but they have drawn too many games. If they do acquire players to either score more or stop shipping as many goals, converting these draws to wins might be enough to lift them upwards.
Burnley are another team drawing too many games, but they are unlikely to get an influx of players, and if they continue risks sending them down.
Watford have grabbed a few wins that's kept them just out of harms way so far. They will need to keep doing that if they are to survive, but should that fail to continue, they are likely to end up being sucked in.