Just saying (like)

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Just saying (like)

Postby Davycc » 13 Mar 2019, 19:33

Found myself looking at the league table on https://www.flashscores.co.uk/football/england/championship/standings/ before the Norwich game tonight (even though I know damn well all the permutations) but I was taken back to last season where I remember clutching at straws for others results to go our way and for us to finally get going .... just for a sniff at the play offs.... Of course it never materialised.

Oh how I've enjoyed this season. 9 games to go and still pinching myself to prove it really is different this time around.
This is what makes you champions, you never give in, never ever give in..
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Re: Just saying

Postby rigger » 13 Mar 2019, 19:39

I agree with everything you've said there, Davy, but wish you hadn't chosen that title for the thread.

I can't stand that phrase.
It's become a free pass for anyone who wants to say something offensive.

A bit like when anyone says 'I'm not being funny but...'

Just listen next time someone does it or you read it before or after an opinion online...
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Re: Just saying

Postby rigger » 13 Mar 2019, 19:39

... but yeah, it's been a great season!
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Re: Just saying (like)

Postby Nic » 13 Mar 2019, 20:20

It is also a great run in. Many previous seasons sparks of promotion chances have been snuffed out by now. There is the fear when we hit a blip like at QPR that the wheels could come off, but elation when we bounce back.
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Re: Just saying (like)

Postby Otherworld » 13 Mar 2019, 20:59

I’ve been doing a bit of very basic, amateur statistical analysis of the last 10 (now 9) games, for us, Norwich and Sheff U.

If you take each game still to play, and apply a score based on the current league position of that opposition team, you get a total score which gives a relative indication of the difficulty of the run-in. It doesn’t account for a home/away bias (at the time I did it, a couple of days ago, each time had 5 home and 5 away games, so I thought it wasn’t worth going further with this.

The higher the score, the easier the last 10...

Norwich City - 152 points
Leeds United - 144 points
Sheff Utd - 124 points

So, it appears that Norwich should have the easiest last 10, Sheff Utd the toughest, and we are somewhere in the middle.

Of course, that could all change after Saturday’s game. I think I’ll. come back to this after the weekend’s games.
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Re: Just saying (like)

Postby Nic » 13 Mar 2019, 23:33

Otherworld wrote:I’ve been doing a bit of very basic, amateur statistical analysis of the last 10 (now 9) games, for us, Norwich and Sheff U.

If you take each game still to play, and apply a score based on the current league position of that opposition team, you get a total score which gives a relative indication of the difficulty of the run-in. It doesn’t account for a home/away bias (at the time I did it, a couple of days ago, each time had 5 home and 5 away games, so I thought it wasn’t worth going further with this.

The higher the score, the easier the last 10...

Norwich City - 152 points
Leeds United - 144 points
Sheff Utd - 124 points

So, it appears that Norwich should have the easiest last 10, Sheff Utd the toughest, and we are somewhere in the middle.

Of course, that could all change after Saturday’s game. I think I’ll. come back to this after the weekend’s games.


Of the nine games left we have more home matches than away, where as the other two have more away matches than home

From https://www.soccerstats.com/latest.asp?league=england2
Norwich City's opponents to be played in home games currently have a combined average of 0.96 Points Per Game in their away matches played so far this season in the league.

As for the hosts that Norwich City will be visiting, so far this season they have a combined average of 1.56 Points Per Game at home in the league.
So Norwich should get 4*2.04 + 5*1.44 = 15.36 points

Leeds Utd's opponents to be played in home games currently have a combined average of 1.03 Points Per Game in their away matches played so far this season in the league.

As for the hosts that Leeds Utd will be visiting, so far this season they have a combined average of 1.43 Points Per Game at home in the league.
So Leeds should get 5*1.97 + 4*1.57 = 16.13 pts

Sheffield Utd's opponents to be played in home games currently have a combined average of 0.95 Points Per Game in their away matches played so far this season in the league.

As for the hosts that Sheffield Utd will be visiting, so far this season they have a combined average of 1.66 Points Per Game at home in the league.
Sheff U should get 4*2.05 + 5*1.34=14.9pts

which would put final tally as

1 Norwich City 90
2 Leeds Utd 89
3 Sheffield Utd 86
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