Re: Statistics
Posted: 17 Jan 2021, 12:43
Don't panic Mr Manwaring, don't panic.
After Brighton, some probably are, but do we need to? We are on 23 points, 11 above relegation. So how are the teams at the bottom likely to fare for the remainder of the season?
If we look at teams who were on 13 points or below at the 18 game stage (Fulham have played 17 games on 12 points, currently under 1PPG but lets assume they get 1pt for the game in hand, for simplicity sake).
Here is the past 15 seasons for those teams finishing 14th and below (click for larger version) with the teams who were on 13 or less points at the 18 game stage highlighted
Apart from those who ended up in 20th, teams do better in the final 20 games, so we probably should expect similar this season. Maybe Sheffield United will carry on rooted to the bottom and possibly not get to Derby's 11 point total (they only managed 4 points in the final 20 games) or do enough to end 19th, but either way it's unlikely that the current bottom 3 will carry on equally badly for the rest of the season.
The average points total in the final 20 games for those who were on 13 or below is 19 points. A similar proposition this time would leave teams on 32 or below
Maybe one team will do a bit better, but in those cases a team that was on more will do poorly in the second half. 33 points could well be enough to avoid relegation, but if it's not it's likely to be not much more.
So what do we need 3, 4, or 5 wins. We will have plenty more games to lose, definitely at least 10 and maybe as many as 15, and we'll still survive.
After Brighton, some probably are, but do we need to? We are on 23 points, 11 above relegation. So how are the teams at the bottom likely to fare for the remainder of the season?
If we look at teams who were on 13 points or below at the 18 game stage (Fulham have played 17 games on 12 points, currently under 1PPG but lets assume they get 1pt for the game in hand, for simplicity sake).
Here is the past 15 seasons for those teams finishing 14th and below (click for larger version) with the teams who were on 13 or less points at the 18 game stage highlighted
Apart from those who ended up in 20th, teams do better in the final 20 games, so we probably should expect similar this season. Maybe Sheffield United will carry on rooted to the bottom and possibly not get to Derby's 11 point total (they only managed 4 points in the final 20 games) or do enough to end 19th, but either way it's unlikely that the current bottom 3 will carry on equally badly for the rest of the season.
The average points total in the final 20 games for those who were on 13 or below is 19 points. A similar proposition this time would leave teams on 32 or below
Maybe one team will do a bit better, but in those cases a team that was on more will do poorly in the second half. 33 points could well be enough to avoid relegation, but if it's not it's likely to be not much more.
So what do we need 3, 4, or 5 wins. We will have plenty more games to lose, definitely at least 10 and maybe as many as 15, and we'll still survive.