Emley White wrote:Mr Russell wrote:mapperleywhite wrote:just rewatched the video of him (apparently) meeting the players for the first time.
In my US working experience there were managers who could talk for a long time but not actually say anything. I was reminded of this by the video.
PS: he's the first American Premiership manager, right?
2nd after Bob Bradley.
Some are counting him the 3rd, including David Wagner as American (bit dubious but eh oh that's what the media say)
I'd just like to welcome him and hope he can save our season. It will be tough but I wish him all the luck in the world. We're certainly due some that's for sure.
12 games left, 36 points up for grabs. How many do we need to survive? 15? 12? 10?
The next six games include Watford and Norwich which you hope we will win, Villa & Wolves which you would hopefully might win one but a draw or two would be fine. The Leicester game might be too soon, and Southampton are on form.
To ensure we survive, we just need to end with three teams below us. Looking at the bottom 7 and who they've played and have left to play
Brentford are immediately above us, but in very poor form, with just a single point from their last 8 games and reliant on their early season form. Their demise reminds me that of when Bournemouth went down
Their best chance for points are the bottom teams they are playing, but have just lost to Newcastle and have Norwich and Burnley up next. If they don't get a win from either of these then you may wonder where they will get points to get past 30 and to 35 which looks like could be the safety point.
Burnley seem to be most people's choice to survive the drop. Since their loss to us, they've only lost to Liverpool with the others being W2D4 and a lot of the games been in the middle pack that they play well against. Having drawn half of their 24 matches, they may well be on to draw half the remainder and say if they win a couple more gives 12 pts putting them of 33. If they do better, then this could be 37, but essentially they just need to keep results coming.
Everton seems to be the team that most forget that they are down where they are with poor results. They've lost the two matches since beating us, and had lost the four games prior to that. They are a point ahead of Burnley, but far worse recent form. Having lost to Manchester City, they still have the other 7 of the top 8 to play. They might get the odd draw, I suppose we could optimistically say 2-3. They have 7 bottom half teams to play. With Brentford, Watford and the Burley postponed game to play they'd be looking at 6 points from these if they realistically are looking to survive. Then there's Palace, Newcastle, and Leicester twice, and maybe they draw a couple of these. That gives 11 putting them on 33 pts, or getting an unlikely win to boost a draw to finish on 35pts.
Watford and Norwich are the current bottom two sides. Norwich are 20th, lost the last 3 though against top half teams. Their next two are Brentford and Leeds, arguably their best chance for points and a boost to their chances. However 12 games to go, 5 points behind 17th, survival will be a struggle. Will likely get 2-3 wins and 3 or 2 draws, losing 7, making them finish on 25 and go down (if they get a bit better results it could be up to 30, but not really sure they can or it's enough)
Watford seem to have teams they know to play against, taken 4 pts at scum, 6 at Villa, and 2 from Newcastle. These three teams aside, they've lost 11 games to the top 16. So you might think Everton and Burnley they will get points from, but with 4 bottom 6 sides they might hope for more, though obviously its against others who also desperately need points. Probably 8 points finishing on 27.
This leaves Leeds, and where are points will come from? Comparing this stage with the 26 game stage last season, might be surprising.
We've lost the same number of games, just won less and drawing instead. It might not feel like that especially with big losses and losing games like Newcastle and Everton that most would hope we would win.
Like for like there were 5 matches we lost last year that this year we drew (or in the case of West Ham, won). However 12 games where we've had a worst result (in terms of WDL not looking at performance/scoreline) which is telling.
How we do may well be what Marsch can get the players to do. We don't know if Bielsa could have got the players up, or as rumour has it he'd lost the confidence of several players. Of the remaining 12 games last season we W5D2L5, and maybe expecting that much is too much, but what do we need? Is 35 enough, 37? We've 3 top 6 sides, that under our past style would probably lose all 3 games, if we play a bit more defensive, get a point from one? middle 7 draw 4 or possibly win 1 and draw 2. We've three bottom 6 and you'd now hope we win two at least. Might all come down to the matches in the middle of the table and how we do as to where we finish.
